Muskogee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

069
FXUS64 KTSA 251724
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

 - Dangerous heat and humidity likely to continue through at
   least mid week. Expect daily heat headlines.

 - Low thunderstorm chances northwest of I-44 tonight. Strongest
   storms on the northwest fringes of the forecast area may cause
   gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

 - Low to medium thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday
   afternoons from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas in
   association with an increase in moisture from the south.
   Additional low thunderstorm chances mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Hot and humid conditions remain on deck this afternoon, with several
locations already seeing triple digit heat indices by midday. For
the most part, dew points are running a couple of degrees below
yesterday`s values, which may keep locations safe from extreme heat
conditions. The existing Heat Advisory looks good for the most part,
although given current heat index values on mesonet stations in
Cherokee County, will go ahead and add that county to the advisory.
As always, will monitor trends through the rest of the day and add
or upgrade any areas if needed.

Low thunderstorm chances will persist in the northwest fringes of
the forecast area this afternoon and into tonight in the vicinity of
a lingering weak boundary. Conditions will support a continued
chance for both gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall with any
strong storms, although like the last couple of days, locations just
north and west of the area will have a better chance of seeing such.

Also of note, with the increase in deep layer moisture into
southeast Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas associated with the
tropical wave on the Gulf Coast, it is not out of the question that
an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop this afternoon. For
the last couple of forecasts, the NBM initialization has been
adjusted upward to just under mentionable levels, and this will be
maintained with this cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Hot and humid conditions will persist on Saturday across most of the
forecast area. With the aforementioned tropical moisture arrival,
increased cloud cover and potential for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas should lead
to at least some improvement temperature and heat index-wise in the
southeast fringes of the area. Another Heat Advisory will be issued,
covering most of the eastern Oklahoma counties, as well as those in
west central Arkansas. At this point, Pushmataha and Choctaw
counties will be left out of the advisory for tomorrow, given
uncertainties about the clouds and convection and their impact. HREF
data also show low probabilities for warning criteria across
primarily parts of northeast Oklahoma on Saturday, leaving the
potential that a localized upgrade may become necessary on future
shifts. Some CAM data show widely scattered thunderstorm potential
again on Saturday afternoon into northeast Oklahoma in response to
the persistent boundary in that region. Will bump up POPs into the
double digits but will not go so far as to introduce mentionable
ones at this time.

The trend in the upper level pattern remains for the upper high
centered to our east to migrate westward by early to mid week,
leading to what looks to be the warmest temperatures so far this
summer and a decrease in thunderstorm potential areawide. Daily heat
headlines will likely continue through this time frame. Most data
show the westward shift in the high continuing into the latter part
of the week, with more of a northwest flow regime sneaking into
northeastern portions of the forecast area. If this continued shift
does occur, slight improvement in temperatures and thunderstorm
potential will result.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again
expected in a corridor from SW into NC OK late this afternoon with
a low (<10%) probability at KBVO early this evening, and again
for a few hours after 12z Saturday. Deeper moisture will begin to
surge north into SE OK and possibly NW AR Saturday morning, but
at this point, development low ceilings is not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  95  79  95 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   78  94  77  94 /   0  20   0  20
MLC   76  93  76  93 /   0  20   0  10
BVO   75  95  75  95 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   74  92  73  91 /   0  20  10  20
BYV   74  93  73  92 /   0  20   0  20
MKO   76  94  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   76  94  76  93 /  10  10   0  10
F10   75  94  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   76  90  75  91 /   0  30   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>058-
     060>068-070>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ054>068-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14